Nate Silver: Baseball Prospectus manager, journalist, math nerd, baseball prophet
Last year you became something of a celebrity for accurately predicting the Rays would win 31 more games than in ’07 and calling the presidential election down to 1/10th of a percentage point. How does predicting politics compare with baseball?
In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. In baseball we forecast 1,800 players every year between the major and minor leagues. It’s much easier to correct and test.

Why do old-school baseball guys seem to resent the advanced statistical approach?
Don’t get me wrong, baseball is a poetic sport that creates wonderful narratives, but there’s also a lot of bullshit about “chemistry” and “clutch” hitting. People still don’t appreciate how ephemeral success is. Something goes wrong with a guy’s swing or he gets divorced or finds Jesus.

For people unfamiliar with LOOGYs (lefty one-out guys) or VORP (value over replacement player), what are the most telling statistics?
For batters it’s really the big three: batting, on-base, and slugging. For pitchers it’s basically strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball to fly ball ratio. With small ball parks today and the number of hitters who have home run power, being able to induce ground-outs is a big deal.

So do teams like the Royals or Pirates have any hope of duplicating the Rays’ worst-to-first reversal?
Until last year Tampa wasn’t even fielding a coherent lineup. They had guys who were playing out of position, no bullpen at all, no fourth or fifth starter. They were targeting 2009, but had so much talent coming out of the seams that they were a year ahead of schedule. They actually had a plan.

Any prediction for this season?
As far as players go, Matt Wieters, the Orioles' rookie catcher, stands out. He could be one of the best players in the game this year. In terms of teams, the ones where everything went wrong last year, like the Tigers and the Indians, they’re likely to bounce back. But the Yankees are my favorite to win the World Series.