| Racing Ruminations |
| Any hack columnist can predict the top five Dover 400 finishers. I predict the top five and the guy who will finish 17th! |
| LAST WEEK Top five: 1/5 17th: 0–1 |
| SEASON Top five: 44/135 17th: 0–27 |
| 1. Matt Kenseth |
| 2. Kevin Harvick |
| 3. Jeff Gordon |
| 4. Tony Stewart |
| 5. Mark Martin |
| 17. Clint Bowyer |
If I’ve learned anything from television pundits, it’s important to draw conclusions regardless of logic, data or common sense. I’ve also learned from brilliant NACAR management that two years of results is more than enough to spark a panic.
So it is with great confidence that I declare Kevin Harvick to be the 2006 Nextel Cup Champion. Or maybe Denny Hamlin. That’s it. Nobody else has a chance.
How can I be so confident? Well, no one in the history of the Chase has ever won the title from further back than second place after the first race. Kurt Busch took the title from second in 2004 and Tony Stewart started and stayed in first in 2005.
How can you argue with history? After all I am drawing on a whole two years of results to make this bold statement.
So give up Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, and Jeff Burton. Pack it in Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kasey Kahne. Why even bother racing, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch? The Chase is obviously a two-driver race. Just look at the data.