(Update: Bieber has since confessed that he was kidding about the whole thing, but read on for the odds of the make-believe challenge if you're still curious.)
Well, at least according to Odds Shark. The online sports betting site aggregated the preemptive odds for the bout shortly after tweeting "We don't like your odds, Justin." Bieber, the favorite, opened at -200 and Cruise at +150, as The Los Angeles Times notes.
Why the hell are we even talking about this preposterous potential brawl? It all started when the 25-year-old pop star inexplicably challenged the 56-year-old Top Gun actor to a cage match in the UFC's Octagon on Twitter.
“I wanna challenge Tom Cruise to fight in the octagon,” Bieber tweeted. “Tom if you dont take this fight your [sic] scared and you will never live it down. Who is willing to put on the fight? @danawhite?”
Biebs' tweet went viral and gave UFC superstar Conor McGregor another chance to insert himself into headlines by offering to host the match.
“If Tom Cruise is man enough to accept this challenge, McGregor Sports and Entertainment will host the bout,” he wrote on Twitter. “Does Cruise have the sprouts to fight, like he does in the movies? Stay tuned to find out!”
Bieber's initial betting edge is likely related to his relative physical advantages and the fact that he's nearly 30 years younger than Cruise.
Barstool Sports' Jake Marsh even mocked up an unofficial Tale of the Tape to illustrate the "Sorry" singer's dominating reach and height:
But Cruise is definitely a physical specimen in his own right. He's always in shape and has been known to do his own death-defying stunts in action flicks like Mission: Impossible - Fallout.
Your move, Tom.