NFL Championship Round: The Best Bets, Odds, and Expert Picks

The absolute best bet, best teaser bet, best prop bet and best parlay bet for the NFL Championship Round, according to experts at BetOnline.
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Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Championship weekend is upon us, where legends are made in victory and the answer to some rogue trivia question shows up in defeat. Unless you’re the 2014 Indianapolis Colts, who decided they’d want universal ridicule until the sun burns out by hoisting a “2014 AFC Finalist” banner to their rafters.

Somebody probably got fired for that.

Either way, it’s two games, but there’s money to be made with your $500 bankroll. If you’re new to sports betting, jump in because BetOnline makes it intuitive and easy. They’ll even add a $1,000 bonus to your account when you join today.

As always, the odds featured below are courtesy of BetOnline.AG.

Best Bet 

While we’ve gone through the regular season and the first couple of rounds of the playoffs with multiple games to choose from, we’re down to our final two. And, really, considering the fact that, as of this writing, Patrick Mahomes is in the concussion protocol, we’ve only got one case to make here so let’s lean into it.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by Tom Brady, are traveling to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. As tough as it may be to consider it as a “best bet,” that is our only option here.

Shockingly, this will just be the fourth meeting between Brady and Rodgers in their careers. Brady is 2-1 in the “rivalry” and won their match up earlier this season, an embarrassing 38-10 Packers loss at Tampa on Oct. 18. Rodgers threw for just 160 yards, no touchdowns and two picks in the defeat. Brady didn’t light up the stat sheet either, though he kept it clean with 166 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. It was the Pack’s first loss of the season.

So that little history nugget would seem to work in the Bucs’ favor, but there’s other stuff going on here. Specifically, Tampa Bay is a Wild Card team and Wild Card teams have advanced to the Super Bowl only 10 times in NFL history. Oddly enough, one of those Wild Card teams was the 2010-11 Packers led by… checks notes… Aaron Rodgers, who went on to become one of only six Wild Card teams to win the Super Bowl. They’re also the last Wild Card team to do either.

That’s right. It’s been a decade since a Wild Card team has contested for a Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Green Bay has won its last seven, including a convincing 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams and their top rated defense in the Divisional Round. The Buccaneers have won their last six, including a Divisional Round revenge game over a New Orleans Saints team that swept them in the regular season.

This playoff game picking isn’t easy. Still, there’s an important stat here we need to really focus on. This is not Aaron Rodgers’ first NFC Championship game, but it is his first NFC Championship game at home. Rodgers is 5-2 in the playoffs at Lambeau Field and hasn’t lost there in the postseason since Jan. 2014.

So that’s where we’re hanging our giant foam cheese wedge hat.

Pick: $250 on the Packers at -166 at BetOnline.AG

Teaser of the Week 

Like the best bet, there’s no mystery on the teams we’re putting in the teaser, but just who we’re picking and why.

I’ve already made the case for the Packers, as shaky as it may be, so now let’s talk about the giant, lumbering, elephant taking a dump in the corner of the room; Patrick Mahomes in the concussion protocol.

According to the most recent reports on the day I’m writing this, Mahomes “cleared certain steps Monday,” on the concussion protocol, but remains in it. BetOnline has gone ahead and kept the line up, Chiefs -3, but make no mistake. If it’s announced that Chad Henne is going to start Sunday that’s flipping quick. According to ESPN, there is “hope and optimism” that Mahomes will be ready to go Sunday and he’s expected to practice this week.

The smart thing to do with this game is to wait until you know. So we’re making two picks here based on the simple fact that Mahomes is the single most important player in this game and Kansas City absolutely can not win without him on the field. Andy Reid can still make it interesting, which is exactly why the teaser is so important.

We’re going to back up our Packers moneyline bet and take the Chiefs if Mahomes plays in a 07.5 teaser. If Mahomes is out, we’re going with the Bills at that same 07.5 teaser. While the Bills would certainly be the favorite if Mahomes sits, Reid is going to blow the lid off the place with wacky playcalls and designs, showing that the wheelbarrow he carried his balls in after that fourth down call that sunk the Cleveland Browns has not yet been retired for the season.

Teaser Pick: Chiefs at +4.5 and Packers at +4.5 if Mahomes plays, Packers at +4.5 and Bills at +10.5 if Mahomes is out at BetOnline.AG

Prop Bet of the Week 

We have some longtime futures up that will take a while to pay off, but if there’s ever been a sure bet to collect come September it’s one that BetOnline has blessed us with here. It’s unofficial as of the time I’m writing this, but Drew Brees is expected to retire at any minute. That means the Saints will be starting a new quarterback for the 2021-22 season.

Currently the odds on favorite is Taysom Hill at -160, with Jameis Winston at +225, Brees returning at +375 (a waste of money) and “other” at +500.

Sean Payton is downright pigheaded when it comes to Hill, refusing to even consider that he might not be the future of the franchise. Hill went 3-1 as a starter this season and there’s just no way Payton pulls the plug just yet. Plus, Winston is a free agent and with guys like Philip Rivers probably retiring as well, and teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers in desperate need of a back up that can win, he’s probably gone.

Pick: $40 on Taysom Hill to start game one for the Saints next season at -160 at BetOnline.AG

The Crazy, Longshot, Throwing-a-Dart Parlay of the Week 

I say I’ll move the mountains. And I’ll move the mountains. If she wants them out of the way. Crazy she calls me. Sure I’m crazy. Crazy for this parlay I say.

Hey, we’re limited with what we can do here, but what would be the absolute craziest thing we could put that last Alexander Hamilton on and hopefully not only dodge an Aaron Burr bullet, but pick up the cash?

The unders. Oh yes. These are some of the most prolific offenses in the NFL this season and it would be absolutely insane if neither game hit the over. So let’s do it. Toss in the moneyline for the Chiefs and Packers while we’re at it. You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts!

A $10 parlay bet on these teams and unders pays $89.95 at BetOnline.AG