NFL Divisional Round: The Best Bets, Odds and Expert Picks

The absolute best bet, best teaser bet, best prop bet and best parlay bet for the NFL Divisional Round, according to the experts at BetOnline.

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Super Wild Card Weekend gave us some of the craziest upsets and results in recent memory and the only thing that could have made it more fun to watch is if you won some money in the process. The NFL’s Divisional Round is now upon us and could be just as wacky, so let’s take that $500 bankroll and put it on HGH.

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As always, the odds featured below are courtesy of BetOnline.AG.

Best Bet 

Out of the chaos of the Super Wild Card Weekend, we need to look at a few facts that came to light after the dust settled and Mike Tomlin smashed JuJu Smith-Schuster’s and Chase Claypool’s iPhones with a ball peen hammer.

  1. Of the six games, four road teams won.
  2. Two underdogs won outright and only two favorites, the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints, covered.
  3. We had four games go over on their totals. The two that hit the under (Ravens at Titans -54.5 and Bears at Saints -47) didn’t even come close.

So what does that mean for a Best Bet this week? Well, we’re still picking one, but this is the playoffs. The Washington Football Team nearly pulled off an upset starting a guy at QB they pulled off the grill at Fuddruckers a few weeks ago. Anything can happen.

But here’s the thing. If I have to hang my hat on any team, if I can look at the eight franchises left and feel like one thing is guaranteed, it’s this: The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t going to be one-and-done in the playoffs.

I don’t like the spread, Chiefs -10, because Kansas City hasn’t covered since Linus was stood up by The Great Pumpkin. The last time Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes squared off it was in 2016 in college, with Mayfield claiming a 66-59 victory with Oklahoma over Mahomes’ Red Raiders from Texas Tech. The two teams set an FCS record with 1,708 combined yards of offense. Mahomes had 819 total offensive yards himself with 734 coming in the air. Mayfield threw seven touchdown passes. Combined, Mayfield and Mahomes passed for 1,279 yards, which set a new record for all of college football.

Will this one be that insane? Probably not. But we’ll talk about the over when we get to the parlay.

Pick: $250 on the Chiefs at -500 at BetOnline.AG

Teaser of the Week 

Let’s talk about the Los Angeles Rams, who made us plenty of money in teasers this season. They brought the No. 1 defense in the NFL to the playoffs last week and completely dominated the Seattle Seahawks in a 30-20 victory. Russell Wilson, who was on track for an MVP in the early part of 2020, was sacked five times and completed just 11 passes.

It’s been a while, but twice before a defense like the Rams’ was brought into the playoffs. In 2000-01 it was the Baltimore Ravens. In 2002-03 it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both those teams had shaky QB situations, with the Ravens fielding Trent Dilfer. The Bucs had Brad Johnson, a decent NFL starter, but his closest brush with the Pro Football Hall of Fame will be getting his picture on the wall after downing a Triple Triple, a family fry and a 24-ounce drink in under 20 minutes at Schnab’s Burgers in Canton.

Secondly, as fun as it was to see Lamar Jackson win his first playoff game and the Baltimore Ravens to riverdance on the Tennessee Titans’ logo, the Buffalo Bills have been on a tear themselves over the last month. Quarterback Josh Allen isn’t in the MVP conversation with Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes, but he might be the third best QB in the league. The Bills are -1 favorites, but I don’t expect that line to sit there by kickoff, so let’s buy ourselves some room with a 06.0 teaser and do it quick.

I think Buffalo is going to win. I’m not so sure about the Rams, but I think it’ll be close.

Teaser pick: $200 on the Rams at +12.5 and the Bills at +5 at BetOnline.AG

Prop Bet of the Week 

If last Saturday’s 27-24 loss to the Bills was Philip Rivers’ final NFL game, then he went out swinging. The Indianapolis Colts nearly pulled off an upset in a game I didn’t think would be close and were in it right until the final whistle. There was a highlight reel of drops too for Indy that will be tough not to think about all through the offseason.

Rivers finished up 27 of 46 for 309 yards and two touchdowns. After the game, Rivers didn’t commit to returning and for a guy his age, 39, with an obvious future in broadcasting if he wants it. Head coach Frank Reich says the team wants Rivers back, but if the Colts aren’t close to a Super Bowl (and they’re not), there’s not a lot of incentive for Rivers to do that unless he just wants to steer clear of his nine kids on Sundays.

I think he hangs up his spurs, grabs a mic and spends the next decade in the booth.

Pick: $40 on Philip Rivers to Retire at -200 at BetOnline.AG

The Crazy, Longshot, Throwing-a-Dart Parlay of the Week 

Can’t you feel the weight of my stare? You’re so close, but still a world away. What I’m dying to say is that I’m crazy for this parlay.

We studied our trends from last week and we’re going to use them to try to score a nice little pile of cheddar here while we still have eight teams alive and kicking.

The last two times the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints played, the Bucs scored 23 and 3. Their total is 52. The Packers have had a week off and that’s not always a good thing, especially facing a battle hardened team with the top defense in the league. That game’s total is 45.5.

We’ve already talked about the last time Mayfield and Mahomes met up. That over/under is 56 and the Ravens and Bills are sitting at a modest 50.

We’re putting the Chiefs moneyline we already like with the Bills moneyline (-137), Rams at Packers under, Ravens at Bills over, Browns at Chiefs over and Bucs at Saints under, and we’re taking our last good shot.

A $10 parlay bet on those teams and totals pays $263.34 at BetOnline.AG