NFL Week 11: The Best Football Bets, Odds and Expert Picks
The absolute best lock bet, teaser bet, prop bet and parlay bet for NFL Week 11, according to the experts at BetOnline.
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As always, the odds below come courtesy of BetOnline.AG
Lock of the Week
I usually give you a couple of options here, with one I like to zero in on for the biggest payout. Of course, betting moneyline locks aren’t built for that, so you have to be careful what you’re calling a “lock.”
For instance, take a look at the Los Angeles Chargers and their -415 moneyline over the New York Jets. Here’s why I’m scared of that. Say what you will about Joe Flacco, the guy that will likely start for the Jets the rest of the season as they begin tossing Sam Darnold’s clothes out the door like a girlfriend during a break up, but he was pretty good a couple of weeks ago. In fact, you can use the phrase “pretty good” to describe Flacco’s entire career. He was a decent starting quarterback in the league. What really set him apart, and it was weird, is the playoffs. Postseason Joe Flacco was elite. One of the best of his era.
The man, even as a rookie, was never one-and-done in the playoffs, something that his contemporaries like Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and even Tom Brady can’t claim. His postseason record is 10-5 with a Super Bowl Championship and he made it to the AFC title game three times. He passed for 3,223 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 picks in those contests. Playoffs Flacco was the real deal. Which is kind of what he looked like against the New England Patriots two weeks ago.
Playing against an Anthony Lynn led Chargers team with a rookie QB puts the odds, still long, in Flacco’s favor. And, as we discussed a week ago, a team going 0-16 in the modern NFL is tough. Almost as hard as going 16-0. So it’s not my lock.
For that, we’re going with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who made throw rugs out of the Cincinnati Bengals to get to 10-0 Sunday. They’re seventh in points scored and third in points allowed. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, are the Jags. Now, this game could be tighter than the spread, as the Steelers have never met an inferior team they won’t play down to, but a straight up win? Talent alone should get them across the finish line.
Pick: $250 on the Steelers at -450 at BetOnline.AG.
Teaser of the Week
The lines this week are all over the place, with four early spreads over a touchdown and seven at -3.5 or better. I can think of no better time to implement a teaser to simplify this for all of us, especially since this Baltimore Ravens -6 line against the Tennessee Titans seems a tad… hopeful.
The Ravens have a ton of talent, but they also have the most predictable offense in all of football. New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, a guy that, we’ll say, has used more nefarious means to glean an opponent’s playbook in the past, used that fact to slog down that predictable offense to get a 23-17 upset Sunday. It’s been a problem for the Ravens since the last postseason. And they show no signs of fixing it.
Now the problem is they’re playing the same team that exposed them like a premium snapchat screenshot in the divisional round last year when the Tennessee Titans beat Baltimore 28-12.
On Monday night, the Los Angeles Rams are currently a +3.5 underdog to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams are coming off wins, but LA completely dismantled the Seattle Seahawks Sunday, forcing two Russell Wilson interceptions and holding them to just three points in the second half. The Bucs, on the other hand, playing a team built just like the Rams, the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago, lost 38-3.
So here’s the beauty of the teaser. If I was picking these games straight up, I’d go Rams and Titans easy. But with the teaser, we can cover all our bases creating a spread that, even if my win prediction is wrong, will still likely pay us some cash thanks to a little 0.60 teaser.
Teaser Pick: $200 on the Titans at +12 and the Rams at +9.5 at BetOnline.AG.
Prop Bet of the Week
We’ve still got good odds on our “Most Receiving Yards 20-21 Regular Season” prop 11 weeks in the season, so now is the time to strike. The top three guys, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (+150), the Seahawks’ DK Metcalf (+450) and the Buffalo Bills’ Stephon Diggs (+450) all have a solid case to be made, but you can’t let that plus money on Hopkins go to waste.
He and Metcalf have the same problem in the NFC West and that’s the Rams’ secondary. Against Los Angeles, shadowed by Jalen Ramsey most of the day, Metcalf caught two passes for 28 yards. Hopkins has yet to face off against the Rams this season, but two games against their rivals are coming up on the schedule. Diggs, on the other hand, is playing in the AFC East and, outside of the Pats’ Stephon Gilmore, who’s been dealing with a knee since coming back from the COVID-19 list, has a significantly easier path to the receiving title with one issue; the weather in Buffalo over the next month.
I still like Hopkins to take it. Even if he has some middling games against the Rams, there’s still the Seahawks, the Gilmore-less Patriots, the New York Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles on the schedule to pile up the yardage, win or lose.
Pick: $40 on DeAndre Hopkins to lead the NFL in receiving yards at BetOnline.AG.
The Crazy, Longshot, Throwing-a-Dart Parlay of the Week
Are we throwing a dart if we like two upsets already or are we finding a winning lottery ticket on the floor of a gas station men’s room? Either way, there’s a cartoon bag with a big dollar sign waiting on us if we hit this one.
I’m looking at Falcons +190, Titans +215, Packers +120 and Rams +160. We’ve already talked about the Rams and Titans, so let’s look at the Atlanta Falcons, who are playing a New Orleans Saints team without Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is getting his first start since last season, a year in which he made history as the first QB in the NFL to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. A few of them went to this exact same Falcons team.
As for the Green Bay Packers, they’re playing at the Indianapolis Colts who were fantastic Sunday, but don’t seem to be able to put two weeks of that together this season. What’s more likely, Aaron Rodgers getting shut down by the Colts or Philip Rivers tossing three interceptions with one returned for a touchdown?
A $10 parlay bet on these teams pays $512.52 at BetOnline.AG.