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We’ve got two weeks to go if we’re going to make the most of our $500 bankroll before the playoffs. And, considering some teams might rest starters in Week 17, this might be our last chance to place some sensible bets with predictable depth charts.
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As always, the odds featured below are courtesy of BetOnline.AG.
Lock of the Week
Remember how last week specifically I waved off the New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams “lock” as well as the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cincinnati Bengals “lock?” Now you see why. Of course, we ate it by putting the Rams in a teaser, but we’ll get to that later.
The problem with the lock moneyline bet is that you have to find one that pays enough to be worth the risk. Also, we’re in the final two weeks of the NFL season and crazy stuff is bound to go down. I mean, look at last week. It’s already started.
Because of that, we’re shying away from that Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (-550) moneyline altogether. It’s the perfect trap for KC, who has AFC Home Field Advantage all but locked up. Atlanta can still play offense for at least the first three quarters of any game. The Chiefs play down to everyone and haven’t covered a spread since you were picking out a Halloween costume you never got to wear.
You know who I like this week? The Cleveland Browns at -430 over the New York Jets. The Jets got their win, shocked the world and ruined their draft positioning. All they can do now to get it back is lose the rest of the way and hope the Jacksonville Jaguars accidentally stumble into a victory. The Browns, on the other hand, find themselves in a pitched battle for the AFC North now after the Steelers dropped their third straight. Pittsburgh is playing the Indianapolis Colts this week. If the Steelers lose it, and they most certainly could, then we probably have an AFC North Championship set up for Week 17 in Cleveland.
Pick: $250 on the Browns at -430 at BetOnline.AG
Teaser of the Week
I would make the joke that the only person more shocked than I was that the Rams dropped their game to the Jets was Sean McVay, but have you seen Adam Gase’s eyes? He always looks like he just stumbled out of a basement crime scene in a SAW movie.
We took a hit last week with LA. That “L’ will sting for a while, but if you’ve bet with me all year, you’re way ahead. What we have to do this week is make up for it.
The Rams owe us, so we’re not going to shy away from them as they play for the NFC West lead at the Seattle Seahawks. The game is currently a pick-em and LA is notoriously good against Seattle and has only dropped one game by a single point to them since 2017. In fact, even if you go back to the Jeff Fisher era with the Rams, they’ve won eight out of the last 11. That could have a lot to do with All-Universe defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who has sacked Russell Wilson more than he has any other QB in the NFL, 12 times to be exact. In their last meeting, a 23-16 Rams win, Donald recorded zero sacks, but took up so many blockers and space the rest of the defense put Wilson down six times.
We’re going to pair that game with another potential classic in the making as the Tennessee Titans travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers is 20-3 all time at home in December and went 5-0 in the final month of 2019 on the Frozen Tundra. Green Bay has opened as a -3.5 favorite, but with our 0.60 teaser we can make the Rams and Packers both dogs and get back on the right track.
Teaser Pick: $200 on the Rams at +6 and the Packers at +2.5 at BetOnline.AG
Prop of the Week
When looking at a prop at this point in the year, it’s always nice to see plus money sitting there for the taking. Such is the case for Kevin Stefanski as the potential AP Coach of the Year currently paying at +140.
The Steelers' Mike Tomlin had this one all but locked up until his team went on an embarrassing three-game skid. Meanwhile all the Browns have done is win 10 games for the first time since 2007. Post a winning season for the first time since 2007 and their only loss since November was an instant classic 47-42 shootout with the Baltimore Ravens that’s a candidate for NFL Game of the Year. Stefanski has the Jets this week and a reeling Steelers squad left and, if he can win them both, will claim the first AFC North Championship in team history.
Pick: $40 on Kevin Stefanski at +140 to win AP Coach of the Year at BetOnline.AG
The Crazy, Longshot, Throwing-a-Dart Parlay of the Week
I never want it anymore. Gotta get away from this stone-cold floor. A crazy parlay. Stone-cold crazy parlay, you know.
I try to do something sensical in these, but we’ve got two weeks left and it’s time to go for pay dirt. We’ve already talked about liking the Rams and their pick 'em currently pays plus money at +105, so we’re adding them. We like the Pack too, so their moneyline at -175 goes into the soup. We’re also not doing anything too nutty by adding the Los Angeles Chargers at -3.5 at home over the Denver Broncos at +102.
Where we lose it is adding the Jacksonville Jaguars at +300 over the Chicago Bears and the Falcons at +430 over the Chiefs. If you can’t see the Jags blowing their shot at Trevor Lawrence and the No. 1 overall pick a week after getting it handed to them, you are not very imaginative. We’ve already scared ourselves off the Chiefs in our lock pick. Why not see if there was reason for our fear by tossing the Falcons in here?
A $10 parlay bet on these teams pays $1,367.71 at BetOnline.AG